| Titre : | Is War Over Taiwan Coming? |
| Auteurs : | Rémy Carugati, Auteur |
| Type de document : | Electronic document |
| Editeur : | Network for Strategic Analysis, 2022 |
| Collection : | Policy Report, num. 19 |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Catégories : | |
| Résumé : | Is war over Taiwan coming? If yes, how would it take place? These questions are among the most salient debates in the security studies community. While it is impossible to offer uncontested answers, we can provide elements of responses through a rational assessment of the factors that make war likely or not. The most consequential factors tilting the balance towards war is the modernization of China’s armed forces, coupled with the exasperation of the Chinese Communist Party about the status quo and its confidence in undertaking a successful military action against Taiwan. Inversely, the immense cost, whether economic, political, or reputational, of forcefully reunifying Taiwan with the Chinese mainland is the main factor that reduces its likelihood as it would threaten regime security. The most likely scenario until the end of the decade is the continuation of Chinese gray zone measures. However, if violence is used, the incentives are to display a massive use of force to impose a fait accompli on Taiwan. |
Documents numériques (1)
 Policy-Report-19-Is-War-Over-Taiwan-Coming Adobe Acrobat PDF |
